China becomes the first buyer of Ukrainian sunflower

Kiev January 23 news: According to analyst firm APK-Inform, the export volume of Ukrainian sunflower in December 2018 reached an all-time high of 580,000 tons, an increase of 40%.

In the first four months of 2018/19, from September to October, the total export volume of Ukrainian sunflower was 1.56 million tons, an increase of 3% year-on-year, also the highest in the same period in history.

China is still the number one buyer of Ukrainian sunflowers, buying 470,000 tons of products, compared with 152,000 tons in the previous year. In addition, Vietnam, Malaysia, India, Saudi Arabia and some other countries have also increased their imports. At the same time, Ukraine’s exports of sunflower stalks to other regions have decreased this year, with exports to the EU decreasing by 25% (although exports to France increased by 4% and exports to the Netherlands increased by 9%). Exports to Belarus were reduced by 32%, exports to Turkey were reduced by 4.7 times, exports to Morocco were reduced by 38%, exports to Thailand were reduced by 3.3 times, and exports to Israel were reduced by 2.8 times.

Global wheat prices have risen slightly, rumors that China bought US wheat

In the week ending January 25, 2019, the global wheat market price rose slightly, as the export supply in the Black Sea region declined and the US wheat export prospects improved. It is rumored that China intends to purchase US wheat, and the US winter wheat planting area has decreased. However, the US dollar exchange rate has strengthened, and the US wheat export inspection data is disappointing, restricting price increases.

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March soft red winter wheat period rose about 2.25 cents a week ago to close at 520 cents per bushel; Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) March hard red winter wheat period It closed at 509.50 cents a bushel, up 3.5 cents from a week ago; the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) reported about 574.75 cents a bushel in the March hard red spring wheat season, up 0.50 cents from a week ago. Euronext's March 2019 milling wheat crop closed at €205.75/tonne, up 1.75 euros from a week ago. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange's wheat settlement price in March 2019 closed at 2,464 yuan / ton, down 6 yuan from a week ago.

On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 96.46 points, up 0.1% from a week ago.

The Sino-US trade negotiations this week are still the focus of the market. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit the United States next week and will negotiate with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and others. Analysts pointed out that the current US-China trade negotiations have entered a critical moment, because there is only one month left before the truce, and if the negotiations fail to reach a trade agreement, there will be a new round of tariff increases. In the recent Sino-US negotiations, China proposed a six-year proposal to increase imports of US goods, totaling more than $1 trillion, aiming to reduce the trade deficit to zero by 2024.

US President Trump said on Friday that he has reached a short-term closing agreement with the two parties in Congress to ensure that the government is open for three weeks. It is unclear whether the US Department of Agriculture will publish a report for the past month after the government resumes its work. The US Department of Agriculture chief economist said late Friday that if the US Department of Agriculture opens next Monday, he expects the US Department of Agriculture to issue a supply and demand report as scheduled on February 8.

This week, people familiar with the matter said that Chinese officials are considering purchasing up to 7 million tons of US wheat, depending on the trade negotiation process. Imported wheat will be used for national reserves. Mark Schultz, chief analyst of the US Polaris Commodity Investment Company, said that although it is rumored that China's purchase of US wheat is supportive to the market, traders are still waiting for sales volume and time to be confirmed. He said it sounds like a good thing, but it must be true. The futures market may receive more support as importers find that US wheat is competitive and currently has lower wheat prices than other exporters.

The US Department of Agriculture's Export Inspection Weekly report shows that for the week ending January 17, 2019, US wheat export inspections for 2018/19 were 516,643 tons, compared with 546,783 tons last week and 423,620 tons for the same period last year. So far, the US wheat export inspection volume for the year of 2018/19 (June to May) was 14,003,664 tons, a decrease of 10.4% from 15,632,923 tons in the same period last year, a decrease of 11.3% from the previous week and a decrease of 12.5% ​​two weeks ago.

After strong exports in the first half of the year, the supply of wheat exports in the Black Sea region has tended to decline, causing prices to rise. Analysts said that Russian wheat export prices rose last week, with wheat prices in deep-water ports rising by $2/ton, as importer demand increased after the holiday market resumed. Russian wheat export supply may be tight in the second half of 2018/19, which will prompt importers to campaign for Russian wheat. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture estimates that Russian grain exports in 2018/19 will be 42 million tons. UkrAgroConsult expects wheat exports to be 35 million tons.

This week the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture urged exporters to abide by the Memorandum of Understanding on Export Restrictions, as wheat exports are already close to the 2018/19 export cap. APK-Inform quoted the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture as saying that as of January 18, Ukrainian milling of wheat flour has reached 83.2% of the 2018/19 export cap. According to data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, Ukraine has so far exported 11.4 million tons of wheat, including 6.6 million tons of wheat flour. The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture requires exporting companies to submit data on grain export plans for the remainder of the year. Agriculture Minister Maksym Martyniuk said the Ministry of Agriculture will work with traders to implement the plan. He said that we will observe. If the exporter fulfills the memorandum, there is no need to adjust. The Ukrainian government and traders agreed last year to export no more than 16 million tons of wheat in 2018/19, including 8 million tons of flour-making wheat. As of January 16, Ukraine's total grain exports in 2018/19 have increased to 25.7 million tons, up from 22.1 million tons in the same period last year.