PTT GROUP'S MARKET REPORT WEEK 4 JANUARY 2019

PTT GROUP'S MARKET REPORT WEEK 4 JANUARY 2019 - BLACK SEAS

BLACK SEAS

Domestic prices grow, weather spoils transportation, international prices mixed, China-US ceasefire is away from the real deal or at least the soybean prices show where the trade thinks it is. Venezuela crises attracts too much international attention, Brexit is in the middle of nowhere, other things are messy. Do you really need to read more here?

Ok, well, some sugar on top: according South China Morning Post, Chinese authorities aim to punish the scientist, whose name is He Jiankui, as he breached the laws and regulations of China when he experimented on human beings as for changing the genes. As a result – two babies (twins) were born – one called Lulu and other was Nana, both gene-edited. I think the worse crime he did, as the newspaper pointed to this, was that he had “organized a project team that included foreign stuff…”, so the correction he would most likely is to face behind the prison cell, would be him working solely for purposes of the Victory of Chinese Communism since.

Out of other news, over the weekend the Government shutdown ended in United States and soon …early February, if nothing else happens or twitted by a man with the strange hair in the House of White, the world of agri trade and farming would get the guidance from USDA as to what to pay for, if any.

And yeah, Chinese New Year eve is just near. Officially, it starts February 5, 2019 and it lasts until Feb 10, 2019 but with the Spring Festival Eve falling on Monday, Feb 4 and a weekend before, there would be no active work we think starting January 31 already in whole China except Hong Kong and Macao. So the mess is not over. It just leaves for the holidays…somewhere.

GRAIN MARKET VALUES

Wheat:

Handy and Panama size vessels

Feed wheat: Sellers DAP COY port(s) were $214-215. Buyers $211-212.

Ukrainian authorities alarmed traders to be careful with wheat exports, in accordance with memo. Almost all milling wheat has been shipped out. Feed is yet the subject of export. With the classification of wheat in Ukraine, where technically the wheat which is feed may be taken by authorities, as the grade of milling one, it may become a mess…if there is a political will of course or just the greed of those who want to be bribed prior the elections this spring.

Russian milling wheat prices remain firm thanks to in-land prices growth, transportation difficulties and general party line…that aims to curb of domestic food inflation but knows no other methods of doing so except of making everything difficult for the trade. Bureaucracy can rarely be effective…

Philippines have purchased Australian wheat at their tender at $280-$282 for March and April and if we measure it to Ukrainian wheat it must be at least $260….or lower. Perhaps somewhere between $255 and $258 should be the price they would have an appetite for Ukrainian wheat, in terms of cost and freight value.

Coasters

Moldovan 11.5% protein milling wheat has gained $5 per ton FOB value within the week and was indicated at $235 fob Reni port for Feb shipment.

Ukrainian 11.5% protein wheat has gained $3 per ton FOB value and was indicated at $223 fob for Feb shipment in Mariupol port vs buyers aimed $216 for March.

Ukrainian 11.5% protein wheat was indicated at $228 fob Kherson for Feb shipment.

Containers

Moldovan low-protein wheat has been traded at $265 CNF port Klang, Malaysia for Feb/March.

Russian 11.5% protein wheat has been indicated at $275 CNF Laem Chabang, which is in Kingdom of Thailand for Feb shipment.

Coarse Grains

Handy and Panama size	Corn: There are buyers of corn bidding $169-170 DAP COY port(s) for January and Feb shipment. That, if we want to find the cost of golden grain FOB, should reflect as $183-185 approx for same shipment period. The spread with the feed wheat is giving corn the great advantage to be bought …as there is a good saying in the Buyers’ Dome in South East Asia…”if spread between wheat and corn is $15 – we buy wheat. If it is between $15 and $20 – we bargain and try to buy wheat yet. If spread is over $20 – we just buy corn for feeding animals”. Spread is over 40 buck a ton right now, so any feed or low-pro wheat that trades to Asia is the flour blending supply, nothing else.
Coasters	Moldovan maize was indicated at $178 fob Reni for February shipment.
Containers	No records.

Oilseeds & Oils:

Offers for sunflower seeds from Moldova to Turkey were found at $382. Local market gained approx. $7 to 10 per ton last week, mainly because of the reluctance of the farmers to sell at previous (old) level of MDL5200 ex-farm and now they aim MDL5300-5350 ex-farm with an immediate payment and MDL 5400-5450 with 50% payable now and balance within 10-15 days after.

In the neighboring Romania, the crushers intend to pay $320-325 DAP for sunseeds, delivered to their crushing facilities.

In Bulgaria, that neighbors with Romania, the crushers were yet buying some rapeseeds in the beginning of the last week showing values of EUR 343-346 DAP Ruse to domestic and foreign sellers, for Feb first half shipment. We saw a seller from Moldova who aimed to get $450 DAP Ruse …and that did not work then, and does not work now, when Bulgarians stopped buying rapeseeds.

Oil meals & Proteins:

Coasters

Wheat bran pellets:

Sellers for February show $182-183 cif Marmara Sea port(s) vs $179-180 buyers for that period.

Sugar beet pulp pellets:

Sellers show $213 cif Marmara Sea port(s) vs $210 buyers for February shipment. Russian origin in general.

Sunflower meal:

FOB values grew up last week amid lack of sellers. $210 is the level acceptable by sellers for non –pelletized product of min 35% protein, FOB COY port(s) for size of 6-10K.

Pellets are going on the show with $6-7 premium.

Containers

Few businesses were reported last week for pelletized cargoes traded at $260-s levels which we don’t know how happens assuming local price in Ukraine and the logistics!

Chinese importers were forced to sell imported sunmeal at around $240-s levels in the South of China – the area that imported biggest chunk of the sunmeal from Ukraine.

Sellers are $275-276 HCMC/Haiphong for Feb/March shipment from Ukraine vs buyers talking $255-260 …and preparing to Lunar New Year celebration.

Pulses:

Peas, Chick peas, Lentils

Ukrainian whole yellow peas were indicated at $295 CIF Karachi and $300 CIF Chittagong with buyers looking at $290-291 CIF Karachi as the best case scenario.

Russian 5-6mm chick peas (Kabulis) were indicated at $440 cif Karachi for February shipment.

Kazakhstan origin red lentils were indicated at $410 C&F Jebel Ali / Karachi range for February-March.

news relative

Consumer behavior changing dramatically in Asia

Agrifood producers and processors must adapt quickly to evolving consumer attitudes

Raising this species of flies and then taking the eggs to sell for 3 million VND / 100 grams of fly eggs

“Raising black soldier flies to sell eggs brings a stable income for the family. Every day, I sell more than 100 grams of fly eggs to local people and all over the provinces, earning 1 million VND / day, at one point, the black soldier fly eggs cost as high as 3 million VND / 100 grams of fly eggs ” Mr. Trang Van Mang, living in Truong Luu hamlet, Truong Dong commune, Hoa Thanh town, Tay Ninh province - who successfully implemented the model of raising black soldier flies.

Poland: Poultry feed production hampered by Covid-19

In 2020, feed production in Poland is likely to fall as compared to 2019 due to the problems the domestic poultry industry is currently facing, Anna Zymerman, Secretary General of the Polish Grain & Feed Chamber told All About Feed.

How to slow pig growth due to Covid-19?

US swine researchers have been reporting results of a study in which they were able to help producers slow the growth of hogs during the Covid-19 situation in North America, while they waited for slaughterhouses to re-open.