OUTRO

We are concerned that political developments in the Ukraine may be the factor of pushing acting “House-Administrator”, Mr. Poroshenko to force the debating and at some certain conditions, accepting the agri-soil moratorium wavier. If President is up to fight for his chair and win, this may be used very well to permit him to remain in cabinet for the next term.

Farmers will be happy, especially those who have not yet sold their rights to sell and deliver their soil to the landlords. The relevant project(s) / (draft(s) of the law under No. 5535 and 5535-1 were submitted yet on 2016 and waiting for the right time to get buried in the ocean of bureaucracy or be alive organism. 

Politically, the time is perfect for an acting President to exchange the voters’ preferences into the law letting them getting richer (allegedly). There are many questions in relation to determination of the cost of the soil as defined by the draft of law, as it suggests the cost as minimum of 20 times of annual land-tax payable for relevant piece of land to the state budget. The rate is tricky, as it must not exceed 12% of the “normative monetary evaluation” i.e. the evaluation (an imaginary cost of the land) exists and from that point the cost of the rentals and cost of the land-tax is calculated. But, well, nothing is ideal, while life and broker job teaches us to be as close to the facts and simplicity as possible, rather than complicate the scenarios that are already complex without any third party’s interruption.

Question here: who’s going to benefit if some memorandum or eventually the Law itself passes? The question lies in the twilight zone. That must be found in “who really controls the agri-land”, “who legally owns and how much of the agri-land” and “how much of the land remains non-used or at the municipality ownership without any private controller/user”.

And that’s the ocean of no boundaries. There is so much crime behind all those “land rights” or “rental rights” that everything that is claimed as ownership, may be disputed and therefore the majority of the agri-soil in Ukraine represents the greatest call option system. The rights for the soil were “sold” as the 49-years rentals by the farmers with the “first right for the owners of rental rights to purchase this land once the law permits”.  Generally speaking that’s the business for lawyers and whatever may be viewed as a possible Victory of president Poroshenko and his policies, should the Law in one or another format, be validated and enforced, may turn to be a chaos and dark ages period for the farms of any size including the agro-holdings as they are called here, being the mixture of the growers’ coop and a trading house.

Results may be unpredictable and that may affect not just the planting campaign or the harvesting. It may affect the social balance at the farmland. Absence of balance is known as disbalance. And the latter is the problem for any government.

Poroshenko remains the smart person, but sometimes that’s the way to go va-bank even if risks are heavy as otherwise his era may be over. We don’t praise him as a best leader, but in absence of others of the better quality – the change of power would lead for another year or two of “crushing and burning” of everything good or not, that has been done by Mr. Poroshenko. New and may not be the best people for the job would occupy the Government and the country, that is weak already, can lose any direction.

And that’s why we think something, related to new agri-land Law, may be activated soon enough…may be boiling already but not ready yet. There would be the times of chaos at whatever scenario – would Mr. Poroshenko stay at the Dome of Power or leave it. But he has managed to create the apparatus, that is however far from be the best choice, but working. The number of new businesses initiated in Ukraine since 2015 may tell the story better then any talking (it exists in Ukrainian here http://uprom.info/maps-business/).

PERU

FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

Well, that's it –looks like the fishing season is over and the quota is all landed – lots of happy, smiling faces in Peru. This has been about the best fishing season in quite a while – perhaps the industry may even end up with some profits this year.

Prices in Peru are reported to have slipped a little – at least for fishmeal while fishoil prices have moved higher. There has not been much in the way of new business this week which probably helped to move prices lower as producers look to get buyers back into the market once again.

There was even some fish landed in the south this week somewhere close to 30,000 m/t which is the very best week in a long time in the south. The industry in the south is still pushing the government to lift the fishing restriction that keeps the vessels 5 miles out. Chile doesn't have the same 5-mile fishing restriction and areas in Chile just to the south of Peru have much better catch than Peru. Overall fishing in the south of Peru is said to be at least 50% lower than in the north of Chile.

The final, final, final 2018 Peru fishmeal export numbers show a total of 1,006,000 m/t of fishmeal exported with 80% going to China and another 12.8% going to other Asian destinations. Without Asia there would certainly be no fishmeal market. The 2018 export number is almost exactly the same as the 2017 number as is the country split on shipments.

So, now we can all sit back and buy or sell the last of the Peruvian fishmeal from this season and speculate about what the next season will bring. Needless to say, the industry is looking forward to another generous quota and an equally good period of fishing.