PTT GROUP'S MARKET REPORT WEEK 4 JANUARY 2019 - US MARKET

US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Another week goes by with very limited grain/oilseed information coming from the USDA – amazing how dependent on this information that we have all become.
Looking at last week, as it ended on Friday, there were not any major changes in US grain prices – soybeans were up by a couple of bucks and corn by a buck or so (this reminds me of the old Springmade sheet ad that only us old guys will remember, you probably couldn't run this print ad today).
This coming Monday is a holiday in the US, so most grain markets finished the week very quietly. About the only major news in the market this week were all the continuing stories on the US/China trade problems and how/when they will be solved. Some reports say that the US is going to back down a little while others say that the US is tightening up on tariffs – who really knows.


The weather in Brazil is still hot and dry and worrying for both corn and soybeans but not worrying enough to get the market too excited. Chinese purchases of grains/oilseeds should slack off little too due to the upcoming Chinese New Year, but this is only temporary.
Wheat prices tried to rally on Russian wheat rumors, but the rally didn't hold. So, all is quite before the US holiday.
Corn by-products or co-products if you prefer all seem to be a little lower this week which is making them quite attractive to export buyers. DDGS business seemed to be a little slow which could have helped to move prices lower. On the other hand, the lower prices for corn gluten meal did get buyers excited and decent tonnage of US CGM was reported for both Egypt and Bangladesh. As for corn gluten feed – it is just chugging along quietly, as usual.
There is some talk that the two large ethanol facilities in the UK may get back into production shortly which could put 800,000 m/t of DDGS back into the UK market --- both facilities are said to be switching over to using corn as wheat is just too expensive. At least one of the facilities is said to need a lot of conversion in order to be able to use corn. Of course, with corn prices USD 30 to 40 m/t less than feed wheat in the UK processing corn makes sense --- but then, the UK grows very little corn so corn supply will need to be imported. With the current 25% import tariff on USD corn there is little chance that any will be used.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 380/390 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 730/740 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

  

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 420/430 to Indonesia

 USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia

Meat and bone meal prices into Asia are reported to be a little softer this week as there seem to be a lot more sellers than there are buyers. US MBM supplies are hanging over the market and pushing prices lower for those markets that us USA MBM. Business in Asia will probably remain quiet for a while as Chinese New Year (year of the pig) is coming up on February 05, 2019.
Word in the trade is that the current Indonesian ban on Australian animal protein will come to an end shortly – an end to the ban will make the market a little more exciting. Both Australian and New Zealand prices are expected to move lower as supply is building but demand is not.
Australia is trying very hard to move some protein to other markets, but it is a hard slog for expensive OZ product. US export business is still quite good as shippers capitalized on OZ being out of the Indonesia market. The feeling is that once OZ get back into Indonesia the US export feathermeal prices will have to move lower since Australian should be available for less than the current quite high feathermeal prices.
In the US, animal protein prices are moving a little lower as demand seems to have fallen off a little while supply is still very good.

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