The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that the export and import of US agricultural products in 2020 will reach US $ 139 billion and US $ 132 billion, respectively.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts US exports will increase by US $ 2 billion to US $ 139 billion. Agricultural exports are expected to be US $ 139 billion, an increase of US $ 2 billion compared to the forecast in August thanks to high expectations of soybean, pork and milk exports.

Soybean exports may reach 18 billion USD. Pork exports increased by US $ 400 million due to high demand from China. Export of dairy products plus 300 million USD to 5.8 billion USD due to increased demand and price of milk.

Beef export is expected to decrease by 200 million USD due to low price. Export of cattle, poultry and milk is forecast at 31.9 billion USD, an increase of 500 million USD compared to the forecast in August. Cotton export also increases 300 million USD to 6.1 billion USD.

The export of cereals and animal feed is forecasted to decrease by US $ 600 million to US $ 29.5 billion due to competition with wheat and corn.

Agricultural exports remained unchanged at US $ 35.5 billion. In particular, exports to China are forecast at 11 billion USD, up 3.5 billion USD compared to the forecast in August thanks to products from soybeans and pork.

Brent crude oil price in 2019 is about 64 USD / barrel and is forecasted to average 60 USD / barrel in 2020, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Oil prices may fall in 2020 due to rising global inventories.

The EIA also pointed out that the United States has become a net petroleum exporter for the first time since EIA began exporting petroleum imports in 1949.

Agricultural imports are expected to increase in 2020

In contrast, imports of agricultural products are forecast to reach US $ 132 billion, up US $ 3 billion from the August forecast, mainly due to fresh fruits and cereal products.

Imports of fresh fruit of about US $ 15 billion, largely due to the supply of avocados, berries and melons from Mexico, offset the reduction in imports of livestock products and milk and rubber.

Forecast of imports of seeds and oilseed products for 2020 is unchanged from the August forecast. Forecast for imports of crop products increased by US $ 2 billion to US $ 68 billion. In 2019, imports of processed fruits and malt beer are forecast to increase by $ 200 million due to increased demand.

Imports from Europe and Asia Europe are forecast at 26.7 billion USD, up more than 1.4 billion USD compared to the previous forecast.

Imported products of tobacco, poultry, oilseeds and animal products are also expected to increase sharply. Imports in several other European countries are forecast at US $ 1.8 billion due to the expected increase from Swiss sugar and tropical imports.

The forecast for importing sugar and tropical products in 2020 is US $ 23.4 billion, an increase of US $ 300 million compared to the actual import in 2019.

Agricultural imports from Asia may reach 23 billion USD, equivalent to the previous forecast. Forecast of imports from East Asia increased by US $ 100 million to US $ 6.2 billion.

Forecast of imports from Southeast Asia decreased by US $ 100 million to US $ 13.5 billion due to lower expectations for Indonesia (US $ 200 million to US $ 3.3 billion) and Vietnam (US $ 100 million to US $ 2 million). 4 billion USD).

However, Thailand is estimated to increase US $ 200 million to US $ 2.8 billion. Import forecast from South Asia is still at 3 billion USD.

Detailed report on USDA agricultural export and import market in 2020 (original in English) of USDA here: